GregHowley.com

Should We Beware of The Future?

April 17, 2014 - - -

CNN recently posted an article entitled Americans wary of futuristic science, tech, in which they cited Americans' fears about new technologies. Fear of change has got to be as old as humanity. I have no doubt that people a century ago expressed concerns that the automobile or radio would herald some unprecedented catastrophe.

Retro FutureBut at the same time, anything new should be approached with caution. When you've got no experience with a thing, you've got to be aware that dangers may exist. Think about when radioactivity was discovered and companies were marketing radium-infused cookware. Think about asbestos tiles and cigarettes.

The article was based on a PEW survey. Telephone interviews were conducted in February, and a thousand Americans were sampled. Of those surveyed...

50% would not ride in a driverless car. Like anything, proceed with caution. I wouldn't want to be the first person to take a driverless car out into highway traffic or on an icy street, but once these cars are performing at the same accident rate as human drivers, and there's a large enough sample, I would love to have a car that could drive me around. Integration is going to be key here. If there's a single driverless car in highway traffic, and it can't negotiate a lane change in heavy traffic, it's going to put many drivers at risk. On the other side of the coin, once driverless vehicles enter the equation, it's very unlikely that they'll have a 0% accident rate. And even if there's only one driverless car accident per 20 human-operated vehicle accidents, the driverless accidents will be national news and only the numbers will be reported - not the ratio. Such is the state of American media.

63% think it would be a change for the worse if personal and commercial drones are given permission to fly through most US airspace. This is a tricky one, and I'd want to hear arguments both pro and con and then consider things before casting a vote here. My first instinct was that at first they should be allowed in only narrow lanes of travel, but that would eliminate the possibility of services like Amazon Air or Burrito Bomber.

65% think it would be a change for the worse if lifelike robots become the primary caregivers for the elderly and people in poor health. This may be the only one for which I'm emphatically with the Luddites. It's been shown that babies, for instance, need human contact and affection. Even if adults don't need it to the same degree, I think the need is there. And while an android may be able to bring you food, help you to the bathroom, and assist in other ways, it's not the equal of a human in this task.

53% think it would be a change for the worse if most people wear implants or other devices that constantly show them information about the world around them. This is a mixed bag. I do agree that too many of us - myself included - are often too plugged-in. But is the solution to eliminate technology that connects us to the internet? One book that I read, Starswarm, portrays an implanted wireless I/O port connected to a cloud AI. That to me seems like a far-advanced version of Google Glass with no obstructive UI. If the interface becomes seamless, isn't it just an extension of our own mind? I'm sure we'll stumble lots on the road to the future, and people need to be cognizant of people around them and of how distracted this type of device may lead them to become. I can certainly see tech like this being a problem, but I don't think that steering clear of the tech entirely is the answer.

80% would not be willing to eat meat that was grown in a lab I would totally eat meat grown in a lab were it shown to be safe and nutritious. I suppose I should have all the same caveats as mentioned in the items above - I'm not up for being a guinea pig - but overall I think that lab-grown meat has the potential to be a win all around.

72% would not get a brain implant to improve their memory or mental capacity if it were possible to do so. Of all the items on the list, this is the one I'd go for. My memory is crap, and I often have trouble focusing. Give me an amp - I could use it.

66% think it would be a change for the worse if prospective parents could alter the DNA of their children to produce smarter, healthier, or more athletic offspring. The concern here would be eugenics. Perhaps it's less a concern when no individual freedoms are being taken away, but then you've still got the concerns expressed in Gattaca. It can be an uncomfortable issue to even think about, much less write about. Look at the first five minutes of Idiocracy. The only certain thing is that none of us have the right to decide what others should or shouldn't be allowed to do regarding progeny. I'd best leave this topic alone.

39% think it's likely scientists will have figured out how to teleport things. I'd have to put myself with the majority on this one. Teleporting a photon fifteen feet is one thing. Teleporting a person from New York to London is another thing entirely. I can't speak to the science behind it, but it seems far too unlikely.

33% say we'll have long-term space colonies by 2064. I'd love it were this to be true. Fifty years in the future, there's a slight chance I might actually be alive. If we could make the resources work and get a colony on Mars, Europa, or even the moon, that would be fantastic. If it's sustainable, all the better. Humanity puts far too little value on space exploration and far too great a value on personal profit and entertainment. And yes, I'm totally a hypocrite in regards to that statement.

19% expect humans will be able to control the weather. Other than minor things like seeding clouds, I have trouble imagining this to be true in any significant way. The forces at play are simply too massive.

9% said they'd like to be able to time travel more than any other sci fi wish To clarify, it seems that the surveyed populace was given a list, and this is the most commonly chosen future tech. The problems with time travel are numerous and well-documented. Travel into the past allows for paradox. Travel into the future assumes a return trip, which is effectively travel into the past. I've read Ronald L. Mallett's book. I can't imagine time travel ever becoming possible.

What future tech would I want? I want a device that gives me a full night of restful sleep in an extremely short period of time, so long as you imagine no side effects. Then I could work all day, spend time with the kids, spend the evening doing all the housework, and have all night to relax, play games, and watch movies. I could actually unwind, or even take up additional hobbies. That would be nice.