GregHowley.com

Drones, Terminators, and Wealth: The Changing Face of War

June 23, 2014 - - -

As human history moves forward, warfare changes. Not my favorite topic, but it's life. Firearms made swords and chainmail obsolete. The advent of the Gatling gun made single-fire weapons in combat a thing of the past. Aircraft and submarines changed everything. The next huge development is drones.

At the moment, drones are used primarily for targeted strikes in the Middle East by the United States military. Whether that's good or not is certainly up for debate, but I'd argue that whether it's good or not doesn't matter. It's happening, and it ain't gonna stop even if the U.S. were to stop drone use entirely. At the moment, drones are human-controlled. But we're teaching our automobiles to drive themselves. It's now technically legal to use drones commercially in the U.S.. And it doesn't at all seem like a stretch to imagine a time when armies of cheaply-manufactured fliers or walkers will replace humans on battlefronts. Odd that Robot Wars may be the future of the military.

When the designers of combat drones are putting things together and discover that bullets are minimally effective against targets that aren't flesh, explosives are great for penetrating armor but are pricey, and that EMPs only work against unshielded electronics, jamming may be the go-to combat technique. Remotely controlled drones require a signal from a controller who is in theory far enough away to remain safe. But if someone else broadcasts a few garbage signals at the same frequency, the drone can't hear the message through the noise. Once jamming becomes common, the only choice is to make the drones autonomous. Scary.

I've concerns here. Sure, there's the whole terminator angle, but that's more a concern about AI than anything else. The Terminator movies are comparatively hokey when compared to stories such as Robopocalypse and even The Animatrix's Second Renaissance. So yeah, that's certainly a concern, but it's been hashed out so many times in science fiction that there's no need for me to continue it here.

The second one has to do with wealth inequality. Wha? Yeah - stick with me - I'm not taking a left turn.

As David Brin likes to point out, for the majority of human history, our class structure has been pyramid-shaped, with the wealthy few at the top controlling the majority of resources. The United States in the 20th century with its middle class has been the exception to that rule: diamond-shaped. And that has been really really good.

Instead of the classic human social pattern -- pyramid-shaped with a tiny, fierce nobility lording it over peasant multitudes -- ours was diamond-shaped with a well-off middle that actually outnumbered the poor! A miracle nobody in all the past ever foresaw. Except perhaps Smith. Certainly not Karl Marx! In fact, nothing so undermined the honey-seductive mantras of Marxism so much as the living example of the U.S. middle class. Which the whole world wanted to join.

And now the penultimate point (before getting back to 1793 France). Our post-WWII flattened-diamond pattern did not quash or undermine competitive capitalism! Not at all. In fact, never before or since has there been such fecund, vigorous entrepreneurialism as during the flattest and most "level" social order the world ever saw.

So what happens if we return to the pyramid shape, and those wealthy few no longer have to convince a soldier caste to back them in their power? What if they have powerful robotic servants that literally have no will of their own? Sounds very science-fictiony when you imagine it happening in America. But imagine that a North Korean or Middle Eastern dictator got his hands on a secret army of atomic robot zombie men...

This is probably a largely overblown concern given the need for skilled labor in today's world - at the simplest level, there will need to be drone repairmen, given that we can't yet clone Tom Cruise for that role. But also electricians, programmers, doctors, and a hundred other professions that can't at any time soon be taken over by machines.

Still, it's food for thought.

Comments on Drones, Terminators, and Wealth: The Changing Face of War
 
Comment Fri, June 27 - 10:30 PM by Ngewo
"Middle Eastern dictator got his hands on a secret army of atomic robot zombie men..."

Seriously, you should pitch this to a movie studio.
 
Comment Mon, June 30 - 10:02 AM by Greg
I cant claim credit. Its a line from an episode of The Tick that I quote often. Mouse over the sentence in my article. ;-)